GM & Chrysler are doomed and here's why

It may require a Wall Street Journal subscription but the link will demonstrate quite clearly why GM and Chrysler are doomed. In ten years, Ford, Nissan, Toyota, etc., will rule the roost.

Great Graphic - It's the Bomb!

One of my favorite economics blogs - The Big Picture - has a very good time-phased graphic of the 2008 collapse. Check it out.

Government Motors Explained

I post this only because I grew up in Detroit and I still have family there. Those who didn't grow up there will have a hard time understanding the trauma of GM's bankruptcy. I have no sympathy for either Bush's or Obama's action in this regard, however, this posting is an excellent background piece written by a former Bush official.

The Counterintutivity of Interest Rativity

In this time of financial turmoil (and, come to think of it, doesn't that phrase apply to any time?) pundits will pundize endlessly that for real estate to recover, interest rates must fall. Well, here's a counter-intuitive observation.

I'm old enough to have lived through the Carter years which, at the peak, suffered 18 percent inflation in one quarter of 78 or 79 (I forget which one and I'm too lazy today to look it up.) Rapid price growth has one dramatic affect on buyer behavior; it makes you buy now instead of waiting.

I remember going shopping with my wife when I was a young man with a full head of black hair and buying a rocking chair that we didn't need. Why? Because it would cost a lot more the next time we went out.

This is going to happen to real estate now, I think. Interest rates are going to climb from the 4.875% I just paid for a mortgage a few weeks ago to the 5.2% of today and keep climbing until they reach a natural, un-federal-reservalized number.

Conventional pundit-wisdom (an oxymoron?) says this will put a spike into a nascent real estate recovery. I say the opposite. In anticipation of rising rates, people sitting on the sidelines are going to jump in anticipating future higher rates. Home purchase activity will increase from here ... and the pundits will drop their jaws in amazement.

Again, we'll see just how smart I am ( ... or not).

You Say Po-Ta-Toe, I Say Po-Tah-Toe

The Big Picture is one of my favorite sites for economic commentary but this post reflects the po-tay-toe po-tah-toe problem. Barry Ritholtz is an accomplished economist but he has a consistently dour perspective on the markets. I was talking to my financial advisor sister a few days ago and I remarked on a phenomenon I noticed years ago; something that I'm seeing huge quantities of during this recession. One bearish commentator will say how weak our recovery will be and this is a horrible thing. A bullish commentator will say the recovery will be weak and this is a wonderful thing and a great time to get in the market. They look at the same information, come to the same conclusion as to the meaning of the data, and then paint it in the colors of their pre-existing prejudices.

The data is the data. The recovery will be weak. Who doesn't believe that?

No Wonder I Didn't Get a Bargain

I recently bought a home in Kansas City, Missouri. Several friends from other places in the country asked me if I got it cheap. I said no, as far as I could tell prices were at least stable around here. In fact, I had two houses sold out from under me (I was ready to make an offer when they were sold to someone else).

The chart on the linked title shows why. The real estate collapse is not national; it's regional.

How Am I Doing - Parte Cuatro

"The markets will slowly improve over the next few weeks, into late April or early May. Then there will be a major pull back that will last until mid-summer. Then in late July or early August, the real market recovery will begin." That was my bold prediction in the third week of March.It is now early May and the market has had a wonderful run for the last few weeks. Some analysts say a bull market has started. Others say it is a suckers bear market rally. Personally, I think the economic recovery has begun but the market is going to pull back in the next few weeks as some traders take some well earned profits. The real bull may start snorting in June instead of July but there should be a pull back here. (Of course, this is a prediction where I'll gladly be wrong.)