The Boats They Be A'Sinking

In years past, I was very respectful of the written word and the well-crafted sentence. As I get older, I gain more appreciation for good images that tell a story. Here's one on the relative size of recent bankruptcies.

The Geography of Job Loss

Here a great graphic showing the national distribution of job losses. This is similar to one I posted recently regarding housing cost changes around the country.

Someday I'll have to remember that this blog is supposed to be about IT and economics - not a place for my mental diarrhea. Someday ...

17 Percent Will Boycott GM & Chrysler

I'm sorry I'm on a car kick lately. Again, having grown up in Detroit and working in the auto industry for almost ten years (in the 80s and 90s) I will have a never-ending interest in the industry. GM and Chrysler have destroyed themselves. I didn't have to be so.

GM & Chrysler are doomed and here's why

It may require a Wall Street Journal subscription but the link will demonstrate quite clearly why GM and Chrysler are doomed. In ten years, Ford, Nissan, Toyota, etc., will rule the roost.

Great Graphic - It's the Bomb!

One of my favorite economics blogs - The Big Picture - has a very good time-phased graphic of the 2008 collapse. Check it out.

Government Motors Explained

I post this only because I grew up in Detroit and I still have family there. Those who didn't grow up there will have a hard time understanding the trauma of GM's bankruptcy. I have no sympathy for either Bush's or Obama's action in this regard, however, this posting is an excellent background piece written by a former Bush official.

The Counterintutivity of Interest Rativity

In this time of financial turmoil (and, come to think of it, doesn't that phrase apply to any time?) pundits will pundize endlessly that for real estate to recover, interest rates must fall. Well, here's a counter-intuitive observation.

I'm old enough to have lived through the Carter years which, at the peak, suffered 18 percent inflation in one quarter of 78 or 79 (I forget which one and I'm too lazy today to look it up.) Rapid price growth has one dramatic affect on buyer behavior; it makes you buy now instead of waiting.

I remember going shopping with my wife when I was a young man with a full head of black hair and buying a rocking chair that we didn't need. Why? Because it would cost a lot more the next time we went out.

This is going to happen to real estate now, I think. Interest rates are going to climb from the 4.875% I just paid for a mortgage a few weeks ago to the 5.2% of today and keep climbing until they reach a natural, un-federal-reservalized number.

Conventional pundit-wisdom (an oxymoron?) says this will put a spike into a nascent real estate recovery. I say the opposite. In anticipation of rising rates, people sitting on the sidelines are going to jump in anticipating future higher rates. Home purchase activity will increase from here ... and the pundits will drop their jaws in amazement.

Again, we'll see just how smart I am ( ... or not).